Long Term: Big Real Estate Trouble

Posted by Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture

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Facinating chart from Tom Keene’s blog, EconoChat, showing US Household ownership rates.


I have to disagree with Columbia University’s Ed McKelvey forecast for a 64% Home ownership rate.

In 1980, Home ownership was ~66%, it slid with the recession, bottoming under 64% in ’85. By 1995, as rates came down, advantageous tax changes were made, and (of course) vast wealth was being created by the stock market rally, the  ownership rate moved higher.

By the end of the dotcom boom, it was up to 67%. Five years later it was over 69%.

Today, we are back under 67%. I would expect to see at least another 1-2% come off of this rate, as we have another 3-5 million foreclosures.

But down to 64%? Quite a few things need to go very very wrong for McKelvey forecast of 64% Home Ownership rate to come true . . .