Ed Note: Dennis Gartman will be speaking at the:
The Money Talks All Star Trading Super Summit
Saturday, October 24, 2009 -The Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre
Click HERE for the Speaker Lineup and to REGISTER if you want to take advantage of this Event.
THE NASDAQ: It Had Better Hold!: The battle line is rather readily drawn, and the market has to… absolutely has to… hold today or things will turn very quickly for the worse. We shall pay special heed to the volume for if this trend lline breaks and if the volume swells it will be all the worse for those who are still bullish of stocks.
COMMODITY MARKETS ARE WEAK COMPARED TO FRIDAY MORNING,
and they are so despite the weaker US dollar, which would of course generally be positive of commodity prices. However, for the moment at least the commodity markets are looking on Friday’s employment statistics as evidence of weakening demand rather than of hoped-for strengthening demand and are pricing most commodities lower as a result.
Look then at what has happened to copper prices in the course of the past several weeks, having tried…unsuccessfully… to push upward through $3.00/lb since early August. The long term copper bulls will still argue… with some modest truth to their argument… that the uptrend extending back into the spring of last year obtains; however, day by day that argument’s underpinnings are being put to test. Since early September, each high in copper has been quietly but clearly lower, and so too each new interim low. Even the most bullish amongst us have to agree that copper can and likely shall trade down to $2.50/lb where long term support exists before this correction has run its course… and even then one has to wonder about copper’s ability to hold.
But copper is not alone in showing signs of weakness. Aluminium, traded on the LME, is now down just a bit more than 10% from its recent highs. Lead, although still in an uptrend, is putting that uptrend to test this morning, and is a bit more than 10% below its recent highs, and nickel… central to steel production… is down more than 15% from its recent highs. As we’ve said, copper has an M.A. degree in economics, but the base metals in aggregate have a Ph.D, and that Ph.D. would seem to suggest weakness rather than strength in this most basic commodities.
Ed Note: The Legendary Trader Dennis Gartman will be speaking at the:
The Money Talks All Star Trading Super Summit
Saturday, October 24, 2009 -The Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre
Click HERE for the Speaker Lineup and to REGISTER if you want to take advantage of this Event.
This brief comment from the Legendary Trader Dennis Gartman. For subscription information for the 5 page plus Daily Gartman Letter L.C. contact – Tel: 757 238 9346 Fax: 757 238 9546 or E-mail:dennis@thegartmanletter.com HERE to subscribe at his website.
Mr. Gartman has been in the markets since August of 1974, upon finishing his graduate work from the North Carolina State University. He was an economist for Cotton, Inc. in the early 1970’s analyzing cotton supply/demand in the US textile industry. From there he went to NCNB in Charlotte, N. Carolina where he traded foreign exchange and money market instruments. In 1977, Mr. Gartman became the Chief Financial Futures Analyst for A.G. Becker & Company in Chicago, Illinois. Mr. Gartman was an independent member of the Chicago Board of Trade until 1985, trading in treasury bond, treasury note and GNMA futures contracts. In 1985, Mr. Gartman moved to Virginia to run the futures brokerage operation for the Virginia National Bank, and in 1987 Mr. Gartman began producing The Gartman Letter on a full time basis and continues to do so to this day.
Mr. Gartman has lectured on capital market creation to central banks and finance ministries around the world, and has taught classes for the Federal Reserve Bank’s School for Bank Examiners on derivatives since the early 1990’s. Mr. Gartman makes speeches on global economic and political concerns around the world.