Is It Too Late?

Posted by Peter Grandich - Agora Small Cap Epicenter

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Gold is flying in Asia. Outside of a rather small group of professionals who have remained strong advocates through thick and thin (I would hope I’d be included in that camp with Jim Sinclair, Bill Murphy, GATA and a few others), this move has left both perma-bears, former bulls (who became weak-knee below and at $1,000 an ounce) and much of the financial media in the “dust”.


My upside target of $1,200 now appears to be within sight before years-end (if it gets to $1,195 I won’t shed a tear).

Many ask why has this occurred? The better question is to ask why did so many miss it?

I’ve compared this move above $1,000 to the U.S. Stock Market breaking above 1,000 in the early 80s. For several decades, the stock market was capped around 1,000. Stocks became so out of favor that “Business Week” magazine wrote a famous front page heading entitled, “Stocks are Dead”. An unknown soothsayer at the time named Robert Prechter Jr. predicted 3,000 on the DJIA. Most thought that was crazy. Well we all know what happened.

I’m not saying gold is going to $14,000 like the DJIA did but I do believe there’s some commonalities. For starters, the DJIA traded between 700 and 1,000 for quite awhile and when it finally broke out, it ran sharply while most kept saying it had to come back just as sharp. Such has been the case after gold traded between $700 and $1,000. I and some others argued that this set gold up for a run to $1,200-$1,300 when we got and stayed above $1,000. Most have missed it and keep calling (and hoping) it comes back to them.


Another similar factor is that in the early stage of the DJIA run, a few highly respected money guys turned very bullish on equities after years of bearishness and/or near total avoidance of equities. Recently, such well-known “financial’ experts like Steve Einhorn, Paul Tudor Jones and John Paulson have become big gold buyers/believers.

And one more common ingredient, equities went from lack of ownership by the public-at-large to the absolute favorite asset to own. While gold remains hated by the vast majority who sell and report on financial assets, as well as by some perma-bears who will become as unimportant as the #1 perma-bear of the late 1990s Andy Smith, gold is/has become an asset class to many outside of North America.

There are also several other long term bullish factors like the fact Central Banks, who used to only know one way to go when it came to gold – sell, are now buyers. Mine supply continues to be limited and hedging, the once cut your nose to spite your face move by mining companies, is now a dead issue.

Is it too late to buy gold? It’s no longer cheap. But if the craze for equities proved anything for almost 25 years (interrupted by a few sharp corrections and bear markets), it’s that the boat needs to get pretty filled up before it finally sinks of its own weight. The fact that gold is still either hated, ignored or misunderstood by most, especially in the U.S., I believe the long-term end is no where in sight. Is a correction coming? Absolutely but not before those perma-bears who have been wrong for seemingly as long as the Jets haven’t been to the Super Bowl, are put out of their misery. Forgive me if I don’t attend their funeral.

Where about to enter one of the seasonal best periods for equities. This coming week tends to be up for U.S. stocks. I do believe between now and year-end my long awaited time to dust off my bear suit again can come. Stay tuned.

Remember, the U.S. Dollar Index needs to at least close above 76.50 before any thought of a dollar bear market rally can become legit. The very fact so many people in recent days are talking about a rally can either make it a self-fer-filling prophecy or actually set us up for another down leg. We live in very interesting times, no?

Sleep tight tonight as tomorrow is shaping up to be a very interesting day.

Oh, before I sign-off, I like to play a video I posted when gold went above $1,000. The attackers are the gold bears in my mind when we hit $1,000 and the those defending are the few true gold bulls who have not wavered these last couple of hundred dollars.