I was talking with a friend who was telling me that it was the absolute perfect time to buy a house because housing prices have tumbled and interest rates are low. I asked him, “What happens to housing prices if there is inflation and rates go up?” “Housing prices should go up with inflation as they do for all goods. Housing is a natural hedge for inflation” Did my friend have a point? Yes and no. Yes, he was right that in a high inflationary environment, housing prices should rise with all other assets. Rents will go up, as will the price of all the inputs into housing such as lumber and labor costs. Obviously, housing prices will go up to reflect this reality. But no, when inflation and thus nominal interest rates increase, housing prices tumble. When rates fall, housing prices tend to increase.
….read more How Increasing Inflation Could Affect Housing Prices