Gold/Silver -Where to from here….

Posted by Don Vialoux - Timing the Market

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Gold_Seasonality

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Gold_Seasonality

The above chart represents the seasonality for Gold Futures (GC) Continuous Contract for the past 20 years.

  • Date range: January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2009
  • Type: Commodity Futures – US
  • Symbol: GC

Gold Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of September 13 and a sell date of May 23, investors have benefited from a total return of 183.61% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of September 16 and a sell date of May 20, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 159.82% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 125.11%.

silver

The above chart represents the seasonality for Silver Futures (SI) Continuous Contract for the past 20 years.

  • Date range: January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2009
  • Type: Commodity Futures – US
  • Symbol: SI

Silver Futures Continuous Contract Seasonality

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of September 16 and a sell date of April 11, investors have benefited from a total return of 314.85% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of September 14 and a sell date of September 23, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 55.36% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 105.43%.