This brief initial comment from the Legendary Trader Dennis Gartman. For subscription information for the 5 page plus Daily Gartman Letter L.C. contact – Tel: 757 238 9346 Fax: 757 238 9546 or E-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org HERE to subscribe at his website.
THE DOLLAR IS BEGINNING THE WEEK BY FALLING, not materially perhaps, but falling nearly universally, and as we head into the US Thanksgiving week where volumes are likely to be steadily smaller each trading session until next Monday, we can assume that the trend in place shall remain in place; that is, the dollar’s trend downward is again intact and rallies are to be sold rather than weakness to be bought. Is the dollar over sold? Of course it is. Is the short dollar position over-crowded? Of course; certainly; without question; absolutely. But is the trend still firmly in place and is it best to assume that the trend shall remain downward? Yes, until proven wrong, that is the way to trade, for as Damon Runyon said, “The race isn’t always to the swiftest nor the fight to the strongest, but that is the way to bet.”
What has happened to take the dollar down and to send gold soaring, for gold is indeed soaring (cf. our comments below)? There is only one major economic or political news item over the weekend worth noting and that is the ability of the Democrats in the Senate to muster the 60 votes needed to end any filibuster attempts and to bring health care legislation to the floor eventually. With those 60 votes, health care “reform” is a foregone conclusion and the centre- leftward drift of the US government is now that much more certain. Capital is fleeing from the dollar as a result and is moving elsewhere. Capital felt always that the when Europe moved leftward, the US would hold steady. Capital felt that if Canada, or Australia or the UK, or New Zealand moved leftward, the US would hold steady.
Mr. Gartman has been in the markets since August of 1974, upon finishing his graduate work from the North Carolina State University. He was an economist for Cotton, Inc. in the early 1970’s analyzing cotton supply/demand in the US textile industry. From there he went to NCNB in Charlotte, N. Carolina where he traded foreign exchange and money market instruments. In 1977, Mr. Gartman became the Chief Financial Futures Analyst for A.G. Becker & Company in Chicago, Illinois. Mr. Gartman was an independent member of the Chicago Board of Trade until 1985, trading in treasury bond, treasury note and GNMA futures contracts. In 1985, Mr. Gartman moved to Virginia to run the futures brokerage operation for the Virginia National Bank, and in 1987 Mr. Gartman began producing The Gartman Letter on a full time basis and continues to do so to this day.
Mr. Gartman has lectured on capital market creation to central banks and finance ministries around the world, and has taught classes for the Federal Reserve Bank’s School for Bank Examiners on derivatives since the early 1990’s. Mr. Gartman makes speeches on global economic and political concerns around the world.