Canadian Real Estate Heading Down

Posted by Canadian Housing Price Charts

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REAL ESTATE: In August 2011, the once hot markets across Canada dished up more declining sales and price data (scorecard) as the cash buyers represented by the TSX Real Estate Index hit the sell button.

All 6 cities covered here have had their SFD prices stall in the last 3 months and in Alberta house prices have fallen back to the levels of the spring of 2007 with Calgary andEdmonton being off 10% and 13% below their highs.


The Plunge-O-Meter is glowing red while gold continues to outperform real estate and all other commodities by a wide margin.

In case you have forgotten the depth and velocity of the previous market reversal when Canadian real estate prices plunged in 2007-2008 (chart); householder equity vanished as follows:

  • Average Vancouver SFD lost $122,900, or 15.9% in 8 months (2%/mo drop)

  • Average Calgary SFD lost $92,499, or 18.3% in 18 months (1%/mo drop)

  • Average Edmonton SFD lost $78,719, or 18.5% in 21 months (0.9%/mo drop)

  • Average Toronto SFD lost $63,867, or 13% in 13 months (1%/mo drop)

  • Average Ottawa Residence lost $25,664, or 8.6% in 6 months (1.4%/mo drop)

  • Median Montreal SFD lost $6,000, down 2.6% in 6 months (0.4%/mo drop)


When prices are rising, new buyers can always be found to cover leveraged positions. But when prices fall and equity shrivels up, debt and those who lend take over the headlines. You can figure out if that big mortgage is worth the risk with this $5 spreadsheet.