CANADIAN HOUSING STILL BUBBLY, BUT SIGNS OF SLOWING AT THE MARGIN
We saw another piece of Canadian housing data, with the release of the relatively new Teranet/National Bank House Price index for February. This index can be dubbed as the Canadian “Case-Shiller” index because it uses the same methodology as the U.S. Case-Shiller index.
The year-over-year rate for the overall index continued to accelerate in February, to 9.9% from 7.5% in January. However, as we saw with Tuesday’s U.S. Case- Shiller index, depressed levels from last year are boosting year-over-year comparisons and we will likely continue to see this until April. Even with the increase in February, we are still off the record 14% YoY high posted in November 2006. Toronto and Vancouver continue to be the frothiest markets, up 13.3% YoY (a record high) and 11.8% YoY, respectively.
On a monthly basis, we are starting to see some evidence of slowing as the national index was up 0.2% MoM, the smallest increase in 10 months. Again, Toronto and Vancouver registered the highest gains (0.4% and 0.6% MoM, respectively) but Calgary and Ottawa actually saw prices decline on the month.
In today’s issue of Breakfast with Dave
• While you were sleeping: mixed action in global equity markets; bonds are roughly flat; commodities are firm this morning
• Equities discover our income theme: for the first time in six years, no S&P 500 company is going to be cutting their dividend payout
• Bleak job market outlook in the U.S.: of the 8 million jobs lost in the U.S. during the “Great Recession”, three-quarters were in positions that are not likely to come back
• Reality check for the big bold bullish take on the U.S. consumer
• What happens when the Bank of Canada goes for a hike?
• FOMC press statement: a non-event for the most part, although the Fed did update and modestly upgraded its macro view
• Bullish investor sentiment still not dented
……read full article HERE
……read summary HERE
• Canadian housing still bubbly, but signs of slowing at the margin
• Ban the bailout: we have governments bailing out banks, homeowner debtors, and now we have government bailing out governments — when does someone finally say, enough is enough!