Bull or Bear – its time to Juxtapose

Posted by Claus Vogt vs Richard Russell

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First – Claus Vogt

“In last week’s Money and Markets column, I told you about some stock market indicators to watch.

Since then, the market has fallen even further. So today I want to update you on what’s happening now, and what I think about the additional weakness in stocks.

The main question we need to answer …

Is This the Start of a New Bear Market
Or Just a Typical Correction?

“Volume picked up considerably on Thursday and Friday, with Thursday’s down volume representing 97.3 percent of total volume. These are clear signs of panic.”

Momentum indicators also fell to oversold levels. And market breadth was very lopsided, with breadth-based indicators flashing deeply oversold levels.

Finally, sentiment indicators show that a fair amount of angst has returned to Wall Street:

In January, the American Association of Individual Investors showed 48 percent bulls and only 22 percent bears.

As of February 4 this picture has totally changed, bullish sentiment is down to 29 percent and bears are up to 43 percent.

Plus, this survey was taken before Thursday’s and Friday’s market action.

Other sentiment indicators are confirming these bearish readings. For instance, at 1.21, Friday’s CBOE put-call ratio was high.

All of this tells me that we’re witnessing a correction, not the beginning of a new bear market.”



Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters –

” In an effort to escape the pain of an ongoing primary bear market, the US under the auspices of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, our reigning expert on the Great Depression, has built the greatest edifice of debt the world has ever seen. Debt can be useful under the capitalist systems, and I mean debt up to a point. But there is a level above which debt becomes a great danger to the individual and to the nation. I believe we are there. We’ve been taken over by insane, unsustainable debt. The bright spot (if there is one) in the picture is that the Fed has held short interest rates to zero. So far, the cost (interest) on the national debt has been held to “a current minimum,” of around $700 billion a year.

But now the talk and the pressure is on the Fed and the administration to boost their zero interest rates and to cut back on stimulus programs and unfettered money creation. Cutting back on money creation and stimuli could have the effect of plunging the US back into increased recession. Continuing on the same path will further increase the national debt. Rising interest rates will have the effect of heightening the ominous compounding effect on the national debt.

“Another warning, please be out of common stocks”

“Remember my rule — our job now is to lose as little money as possible. And keep your day job if you have one”.

….more HERE


Richard Russell has made his subscribers fortunes. One of the best values anywhere in the financial world at only a $300 subscription to get his DAILY report for a year. HERE to subscribe. Amongst his achievements Richard was in cash before the 2008/2009 Crash and he has been Bullish Gold since below $300

Ed Note: Richard Russell is bullish Silver and holds one of the largest single positions he has held since the 1950’s in the precious metals.


Claus Vogt is the editor of Sicheres Geld, the first and largest-circulation contrarian investment letter in Europe. Although the publication is based on Martin Weiss’ Safe Money, Mr. Vogt has provided new, independent insights and amazingly accurate forecasts that, in turn, have contributed great value to Safe Money itself.

Mr. Vogt is the co-author of the German bestseller, Das Greenspan Dossier, where he predicted, well ahead of time, the sequence of events that have unfolded since, including the U.S. housing bust, the U.S. recession, the demise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the financial system crisis.

He is also the editor of the German edition of Weiss Research’s International ETF Trader, which has delivered overall gains (including losers) in the high double digits even while the U.S. stock market suffered its worst year since 1932.

His analysis and insights will be appearing regularly in Money and Markets.