11/14/09 Rome, Italy – Dave Rosenberg says the unemployment rate is headed to 12-13%. And then, it’s going to stick at more than 10% for a long time.
“Think about it. We haven’t yet hit bottom on employment but that will happen at some point. Employment is not going to zero, of that we can assure you. But when we do start to see the economic clouds part in a more decisive fashion, what are employers likely to do first? Well, naturally they will begin to boost the workweek and just getting back to pre-recession levels would be the same as hiring more than two million people. Then there are the record number of people who got furloughed into part-time work and again, they total over nine million, and these folks are not counted as unemployed even if they are working considerably fewer days than they were before the credit crunch began.
“So the business sector has a vast pool of resources to draw from before they start tapping into the ranks of the unemployed or the typical 100,000-125,000 new entrants into the labour force when the economy turns the corner. Hence the unemployment rate is going to very likely be making new highs long after the recession is over – perhaps even years.”
Like we keep saying…get ready for a long, Japan-like slump.
But here’s a headline that offers hope for a brighter future:
“Unions prod Obama to fix ailing airline industry”
On the surface of it, the idea is absurd. What does Obama know about airplanes? Who would want to fly in an airplane with Obama in the pilot seat? But the headline reveals today’s most popular delusion…….
…….read more HERE.