U.S. Stock Market – All is well with Europe again… NOT! While I’m glad to have been short-term bullish on equities and not getting killed as many shorts are/will, please don’t confuse a countertrend rally with a new bull market. You’re going to hear a lot of hype from the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd, especially if and when we approach key resistance of 1275 on the S & P 500 (my target for my short-term bullishness).
Chart updated at 8:55pm P.S.T.
As day always turns into night, rest assured as we get through Thanksgiving the “happy” people will be out in force (using their favorite home, TOUT-TV) telling us one of their great fables, the Santa Claus Rally.
I would use this anticipated run towards 1275 as an opportunity to prune portfolios as Europe is not only far from okay, but only the opening act to the real coming disaster unfolding here in the U.S.
Bonds – AVOID!!!
Gold – One again the death of the “mother’ of all bull markets has been greatly exaggerated. For several years now, I’ve suggested $2,000+ gold is a question of when, not if. Never have I been more confident in that assessment.
U.S. Dollar Index – How many times must the dollar bulls have their feet cut out from underneath them before they realize poor Uncle Sam is terminally ill. But don’t think for even a minute that the Euro is anymore special. Choosing between them is like picking your poison. The only paper currency I’m comfortable with holding is the Canadian Dollar (so long as they don’t put Roberto Luongo picture on the front).
Oil and Natural Gas – I’m neutral on oil but see a pop over $100 before year is out. I l really like natural gas but the shares trade as if the price was $7 not half that.
Special Note – I will be on Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks radio show this Saturday at 9AM pacific time and also his keynote speaker at his conference in November.