2012 Outlook: The Case for US Recession

Posted by Jack Crooks - Black Swan Capital

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1. First and foremost, it should represent a year of deleveraging, i.e. deflation.
 
2. Key Rationales why we believe US growth disappoints:

Debt overhang-approaching 100% debt/gdp
Export headwind
Fiscal stimulus deceleration
Falling Consumer Real Wealth
Limits of monetary policy
 
3. Thinking linkages it doesn’t look pretty

Flat US demand pressures China model
Slowing Chinese growth hurts German exports (ditto US growth)
Eurozone recession pressures Chinese exports
Eurozone banking crisis hurts Asian trade finance
Slower European and emerging market demand hurt US exports