Thank You – Jefft Saut

Posted by Brent Woyat, Portfolio Manager, CIM, CMT

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The call for this week: As expected, Bernanke did not taper last week. As not expected, most of the major market indices I monitor made new all-time highs, rendering another Dow Theory “buy signal.” However, last Wednesday’s upside explosion looked conspicuously like a short-covering, upside, exhaustion rally. That view was reinforced by the relatively quick “giveback” of Thursday/Friday. As stated, typically after a huge momentum move, like Wednesday’s “no taper” rally, the equity markets will trade sideways for a few days. That just didn’t happen as the S&P 500 pulled right back to its previous intraday high of 1709.67 (August 2, 2013). Historically, there is evidence that when you get a momentum move like last Wednesday’s, which is followed by a closing price below a previous high, it has resulted in more of a pullback. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the SPX reacts off of the August 2nd pivot point of 1709.67 this week.

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Brent Woyat, Portfolio Manager, CIM, CMT