Thanks for joining us last night. This is just a quick note to summarize what I heard at the Emergency Gold Summit – Mike
All three analysts thought the bull market in gold was not over. The timing depended on the specific style of analysis used.
Marty stated the norm is that the majority of the price depreciation in any decline takes place early in the move followed by a significant consolidation.
Marty’s forecast revolves around the US dollar. I found his observation that the US dollar is the only game in town fascinating. Many people don’t realize that when it comes to the ability of financial markets to absorb major moves of capital there are only three choices – the US, Japan and Europe. (You can make an argument that the British pound is also large enough to join the group.)
But with the Japanese government determined to devalue the yen and with Europe desperate problems Marty thinks that the US dollar is the only default position. And that will provide huge impetus for an up move in the greenback, which will propel stocks and will hold the price of gold (measured in US dollars down).
Marty thinks that the confidence in the US dollar will start to wane starting in October, 2015 and then accelerating at least into 2017. Gold will move inversely to the dollar with first major resistance coming at $2,300 – the old high adjusting for inflation. And then moving on to the $5,000 level.
Silver’s ultimate move will be to the $100 area. Once it goes above the old highs at $50 the move should accelerate. But be prepared for lower prices on the shorter term.
He thinks that June could provide a short-term turning point but the bigger month will be September – centering on the German election. If Merkel doesn’t get reelected it could accelerate money leaving Europe and possibly push gold to its ultimate low.
The key is currency movement – especially into the US Dollar. One more thing – Marty has correctly called the increasing level of volatility well before current analysts had looked it up in the dictionary – and he sees that trend intensifying. Be quick on your feet.
Mark is a trader whose method identifies short term swings in the market. Long term he is very on bullish gold and silver but so far the market has given him no sign of reversing its downside trend.
His targets for a move up are $1489 and then on to the old support in the $1530 range to get a bigger move going. Then with other smaller resistance levels along the way $1796 must be passed to bring the old high of $1922 into play.
On the downside Mark sees support at the recent low of $1341 broken to bring in a series of lower lows into play with potential risk down to $923 if the support is threatened.
Mark reminded us that the market does not have to go up from here but rather can rally strongly and then come down and test or break the lows.
He sees the opportunity for a bounce in the major gold stocks but investors have to be prepared for new lows. The charts have not reversed, which warns that the downtrend is in tact.
Silver has hit Mark’s initial downside target in the $21 range but if that doesn’t hold $19 and ultimately $14 are in play. ON the upside silver must first clear the $24.71 high from April 29, then the next resistance is 26.00. To re-establish the uptrend silver needs to clear 24.71, 28.20, 29.48, 32.58 and then 35.32. Ultimately Mark see silver getting over $100.
I have include a few charts below but in a nutshell the period between May 24 and June 7 is an important time window for a low.
His preferred scenario is a low in gold at $1280 to $1300. David sees 2014 and 2016 as preferred dates for a significant upmove.
In silver, David’s preferred scenario would be to see the low right here at $21. Hi upside count continues to be $125 long term.