Bull Market Duration & Strength

Posted by Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture

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I was speaking with a friend who asked why 48% — why not 100% cash?

The short answer is that we are seeing some signs of a pullback, but not necessarily anything more ominous. Additionally, the 3rd year of a Presidency has lots of tailwinds in it for the markets.

But the longer answer is a bit more nuanced. Have a look at the chart and table below, from Jim Stack of Investech Research. The Bull Market Duration chart shows that in terms of overall rallies, the present run is not too long in the tooth. This present run is not yet two years old, about half of the average length of rallies over the past century. I read this as suggesting longer term investors can stay long(ish), so long as they have risk discipline in place: