The trouble with being a contrarian is that you can never be quite contrarian enough.
We began having doubts about the ‘feds inflate…gold soars’ hypothesis last year. It was too easy…too obvious. And if it were that easy to inflate a nation’s currency, how come the Japanese couldn’t get the hang of it in the ’90s?
So, we moved towards a contrarian position – inflation, yes…but not for a while. And gold? Well, we are in it for the long run. In the short run, anything could happen.
To clarify our view on gold, The Daily Reckoning is not bearish on the metal. It is not bullish on the metal either. It is buggish. We are gold bugs. In the long run, gold will retain its value. Since that’s all we ask of it, we are always satisfied. Even if it is down in the short run – and it went through an 18-year downcycle from 1980 to 1998 – it will come back in the long run.
Gold is not a speculation for us; it is a means of saving money. As Richard Russell says, a man should count his wealth neither in dollars nor in euros; he should count it in ounces.
Our views on gold are still contrarian. But our views on the gold market have become commonplace. Now…everyone’s a contrarian. As we read the opinions and the blogs, it has become common to forecast a dip in the gold price…followed by a new, big bull market after inflation has found its footing.
And so what does gold do? It goes up!
Yesterday, gold rose $11 – still comfortably above the $1,000 mark. Is gold going up because people…Read more…
The Next Great Oil Frontier
By Byron King – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Offshore Nambia is quickly becoming one of the world’s greatest frontier oil provinces.
Back in the 1960s and 1970s, a few major companies took out oil exploration concessions there from the government of South Africa. In 1974, Shell discovered a gas field off the southwest coast with the Kudu project. Early estimates were 1 trillion cubic feet of reserves, but current estimates range up to 10 trillion. Kudu was big, but nobody much cared about natural gas back then. Gas was too cheap, and southern Africa was too far away.
There was hardly any development around Kudu for the next 20 years. South Africa was under international sanctions due to its apartheid regime, so oil companies and other outside investment stayed away. Almost nothing happened with energy development until Namibia became independent in 1990.
By the early 1990s, the gas field at Kudu intrigued foreign oil companies. Kudu showed a large hydrocarbon resource. Clearly, there was significant potential. But nobody really understood the offshore geology. Plus, back then, it was tough to drill in water more than about 1,500 feet deep. Namibia didn’t make for an investment magnet.
But with the recent success of offshore Brazil, the energy exploration expectations of the world have been fundamentally altered. The same brilliant researchers and scientists that discovered the potential of Brazil’s Tupi field are now doing extensive research in offshore West Africa, in particular offshore Namibia. One researcher I’ve been following very closely believes the offshore areas of Namibia are ‘geologic analogues’ to Brazil.
Prior to joining Whiskey and Gunpowder, Byron received his Juris Doctor from the University of Pittsburgh School of Law, was a cum laude graduate of Harvard University, served on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations and as a field historian with the Navy. Our resident energy and oil expert, Byron is the editor of Outstanding Investments and Energy and Scarcity Investor .